大数据研究表明：COVID-19的传播与气温高低有关

编辑翻译：奇奇

译文校对：菁菁

文献于2021年2月发表在最新的《美国科学公共图书馆》（PLOS ONE）上。研究人员分析了大量气温与COVID-19病例的数据，发现COVID-19的传播与气温负相关。

SARS-CoV-2大流行造成了巨大的动荡，导致全球超过230万人死亡，美国死亡人数高达46.5万人。因此，了解季节性气温变化对病毒传播的影响，对今后减少病毒传播至关重要。

从患者样本中分离出的、严重感染SARS-COV-2病毒颗粒（黄色）的凋亡细胞（绿色）的彩色扫描电子显微照片。图片摄于马里兰州德特里克堡的NIAID综合研究设施（IRF）。

SARS-CoV-2属于人类冠状病毒的一个大家族。大多数冠状病毒的特征是在较冷、湿度低的月份中传播增加，而在较温暖、湿度高的月份中传播减少。基于这种理解，路易斯维尔大学克里斯蒂娜·李·布朗环境研究所、约翰·霍普金斯大学医学院、美国国防部联合人工智能中心的研究人员得出的理论是，大气温度也会影响SARS-CoV-2的传播。

研究人员对比了2020年1月22日至4月6日期间北半球50个国家的每日低温数据和记录的COVID-19病例。他们本周发表在《美国科学公共图书馆》（PLOS ONE）的研究表明：随着温度的升高，COVID-19新病例的发生率会下降。

数据分析表明，在华氏30至100度之间，每日低温升高1华氏度与COVID-19病例的增长率降低1％相关，而温度降低1华氏度与COVID-19病例增长率上升3.7％相关。通过对COVID-19大流行早期的数据分析，在锁定、屏蔽或不考虑其他社会性遏制病毒行为的重大影响下，该研究结果得到了证实。

Aruni Bhatnagar博士是布朗环境研究所主任，也是论文的合著者。他表示：“尽管COVID-19是一种具有非温度依赖性传播特征的传染病，但我们的研究表明它也是可能具有季节性因素的。当然，温度对传播速率的影响会受到社会干预的改变，比如说距离、待在室内的时间以及其他因素。这些因素的综合作用最终决定了COVID-19的传播。”

研究人员得出结论是，与其他季节性呼吸道病毒一样，COVID-19的传播缓慢与夏季月份有关。这种季节性影响可能有助于当地预测病毒复发的时间，并计划采取社会干预措施。

美国整个夏季都出现了COVID-19的高峰期，但研究人员指出，根据他们分析的数据显示，较低气温的夏季可能导致更多的病例的出现。数据还表明，温度与传播率之间的相关性远大于温度与COVID-19治愈率或死亡率之间的相关性。

该研究的第一作者约翰·霍普金斯大学医学博士Adam Kaplin说：“了解SARS-CoV-2的温度敏感性，对于我们预测其大流行的过程具有重要意义。我们不知道目前可用的疫苗能维持多久的效果。另外，由于北半球和南半球季节相反，COVID-19病毒会反复在南北半球传播。随着时间的推移，病毒可能会出现新的变种，而我们也不知道这样会带来什么风险。但是能够得出的合理结论是，这项研究表明，与其他季节性病毒一样，SARS-CoV-2可能随着时间的推移出现极难控制的情况，除非全球协同合作共同努力以结束这一大流行病。”

英语原文

Data Show Lower Daily Temperatures Lead to Higher Transmission of COVID-19

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused tremendous upheaval, leading to more than 2.3 million deaths worldwide and 465,000 in the United States. Understanding the impact of seasonal temperature changes on transmission of the virus is an important factor in reducing the virus's spread in the years to come.

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a large family of human coronaviruses, most of which are characterized by increased transmission in cooler, less humid months and decreased transmission in warmer, more humid months. With this understanding, researchers at the University of Louisville's Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center and others theorized that atmospheric temperature also would affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

The researchers compared daily low temperature data and logged cases of COVID-19 in 50 countries in the Northern Hemisphere between Jan. 22 and April 6, 2020. Their research, published this week in PLOS ONE, showed that as temperatures rose, the rate of new cases of COVID-19 decreased.

The data analysis showed that between 30 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a 1-degree Fahrenheit increase in daily low temperature was associated with a 1% decrease in the rate of increase in COVID-19 cases, and a 1-degree decrease in temperature was associated with an increase in that rate by 3.7%. By analyzing data from early in the pandemic, the results were obtained without significant influence by lockdowns, masking or other social efforts to contain the virus.

"Although COVID-19 is an infectious disease that will have non-temperature dependent transmission, our research indicates that it also may have a seasonal component," said Aruni Bhatnagar, Ph.D., co-author and director of the Brown Envirome Institute. "Of course, the effect of temperature on the rate of transmission is altered by social interventions like distancing, as well as time spent indoors and other factors. A combination of these factors ultimately determines the spread of COVID-19."

The researchers concluded that summer months are associated with slowed transmission of COVID-19, as in other seasonal respiratory viruses. This seasonal effect could be useful in local planning for social interventions and timing of resurgence of the virus.

In the United States, sharp spikes in COVID-19 were seen over the summer, but the researchers noted that based on the data they analyzed, cooler summer temperatures may have resulted in an even higher number of cases. The data also indicates that the correlation between temperature and transmission was much greater than the association between temperature and recovery or death from COVID-19.

"This understanding of of the SARS-CoV-2 temperature sensitivity has important implications for anticipating the course of the pandemic," said Adam Kaplin, M.D., Ph.D., of Johns Hopkins, first author of the study. "We do not know how long the currently available vaccines will sustain their benefits, nor what the risks are of new variants developing over time if the Northern and Southern Hemispheres continue to exchange COVID-19, back and forth across the equator, due to their opposing seasons. But it is reasonable to conclude that this research suggests that, like other seasonal viruses, SARS-CoV-2 could prove to be extremely difficult to contain over time unless there is a concerted and collaborative global effort to work to end this pandemic."

参考文献

Adam Kaplin et al, Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, PLOS ONE (2021). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246167

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